In my daily blog reading I noticed today the post on Mashable about MySpace traffic falling off a cliff. While I was not shocked, I was interested to see the details. Mashable sites Compete.com’s numbers around unique visitors going down around 5 Million uniques over the past month. (and nearly 20% of it’s traffic since June) While this is accurate, I am not sure Mashable spent the time to really paint how bleak the picture looks for MySpace in terms of trends.
As a Product Manager myself, I am well aware of how hard it can be to move the needle in the right direction on an up-swing. It can also be even more challenging when a competitor is pulling away your traffic, and not only pulling it away, but ripping it from your very claws.. no matter how hard you hold on. Sometimes your product just isn’t good enough. Just because you start out as something… say, a site focused on helping musicians, doesn’t mean you should latch on to that same trend on your way down. What gets you noticed is almost definitely NOT the thing that will get you across the chasm and into the hearts of the mainstream users. (Crossing the Chasm)
Check out the Google Trends chart over time for Facebook and MySpace. Long about the time Microsoft threw some money at Facebook (The A in the chart), they started climbing like a skyrocket.

There is no comparison, While facebook was gaining momentum initially, the trends of what people were searching for and caring about was clearly NOT going to be MySpace. If you compare this chart against traffic trends on the sites, you can see about the same time MySpace really started to trend downward on Google, Facebook started to take it over in terms of overall traffic.

Now check out the GLOBAL PAGEVIEW PERCENTAGE on Alexa for these two.. this shows an amazing tale for Facebook. They have over doubled the penetration of total internet pageview penetration in under a year. WOW.

MySpace never had the main stream appeal to fully take off in my view. What MySpace did was sit on their laurels and very lightly extend the cheesy templating functionality, allow more crap on pages and let people plug in embedded audio in the webpages. Started to remind me of the Hamster Dance crap (http://www.webhamster.com/) back in the day! As you can see, with this strategy they were never able to cross the 10% reach mark according to Alexa.

Overall Time on site for Facebook is starting to trend upwards. This is a leading indicator that possibly it is becoming more of an entrenched portion of people’s daily lives as we continue to use Facebook. MySpace on the other hand is losing more and more daily page views since the beginning of the year and less and less time on site for it’s users. No longer is it critical for as many users. Only the few entrenched users (likely with ties to music) are driving up the daily time. It’d be interesting to see how much an average user with BOTH accounts spends on each one daily.
I also think this particular stat is partially driven by the very nature of the sites. MySpace is focused on single sites per person and not the constant stream of information about your friends, family and coworkers. The nature of the Facebook news feed is a fantastic discovery mechanism and forcing function to drive my daily usage rates through the roof. (and amazing for their ad inventory as well)
Going back to the first set of data that Mashable used has some pretty scary stats if I were a MySpace Product Manager. Overall MySpace visits for the past month are down 15.51% and annually they are down 28.33%. If you take their revenues in 2008 of around $800 Million dollars, drop that by 28% for this year.. they have lost about $224 Million in Revenue assuming the same monitization rates. This does not account for the possibility they are getting less for ad rates due to any skittishness from advertisers. That amounts for about $896 Million lost in valuation based on that same 2008 number. (was $3.2B)
A side note of interest is that initially Facebook was considered more closed than MySpace. If you look at the API and development focus now for Facebook, nobody could argue that between them and Amazon, you have two of the most solid development communities for web 2.0/application services out there. I believe this is a key to Facebook’s success. No longer were they the bottleneck in innovation, they allowed their community to lead them past MySpace for compelling offerings and crushed the competition with authority.
While Mashable had some data that was interesting to me, digging in a little more at the numbers makes me want to short their stock.. well, if I could. :) Things are NOT going well for them, they are not getting better. MySpace will be hard pressed to reverse this trend in the coming months. You can bet that within 6-9 months, MySpace will be so low on the radar that existing profiles will be dormant, there will be MySpace themes dedicated to routing people to their “new” Facebook profile and MySpace will be suffering to keep ANY key developers on board. Heck, Execs, Sr. Leadership, Innovators… they will all jump ship. Only the weak and wary will stay on board until they feel the proverbial water surrounding their neck and slowly taking away that last breath of Social Media love-fest air.. then.. gone. Check back in mid to late 2011 to see what MySpace looked like on http://archive.org in it’s old state. When it was a company.