People are going on about how the Kindle is at risk because of the iPad.  Personally  I have not seen how well the iPad works in daylight.. but I know the Kindle works like a champ.  That’d be the big risk I think.. but…

I think the iPad vs. Kindle is not the right question.  It is potentially impactful for both companies.  Now.. will Amazon suffer because of the iPad?  Maybe a little at first, but I don’t think significantly in the long run.  Here is why.

Hardware sales are not hugely profitable.  If Amazon were to lose ALL hardware sales for the Kindle, it would be visible.. but what if they do an update to the iPhone Kindle app and make it more iPad friendly?  What if it is competitive with the iPad eBook app?  Do they have exactly the same content?  No..  Will it breed competition?  Yes.  Isn’t this better for all of us long-term?

I think that Amazon will do just fine giving away a Kindle app and having sales through their Kindle store on the iPad.  It should be a fantastic opportunity for them.  If I was the product guy on the Kindle App, I’d be jumping for joy right now.  Yet another great platform for me to sell books through.

OK.. I am pretty sure I am going to break this into a multi-part post just due to the size it could get… so stay tuned.

The reason I wanted to post about SmartPhone development is the recent hype around the G1 and how people think Google might unseat apple for their slot in the SmartPhone market. I disagree.. and I know others do also.

First off, lets look at the development platforms.  Android had chosen to go open source.  Open source COULD  mean many developers building and adding to a new platform, or it could mean many developers forking code and releasing new versions of the OS tweaked per handset vendor.  How does that sound developer community?  What if HTC and Samsung both had tweaked versions of their OS and did not regression test against a known set of test cases and functionality?  You know that will mean broken applications.. or code that says “if OEM !=HTC…”  and the spaghetti begins.

If you look at the approach Apple and others have taken, it very much lines up with their thoughts around controlling hardware and software.  The Financial Alchemist points out the many issues Microsoft has with not controlling hardware, and what benefits it has for other vendors.  If you control the hardware, drivers, software and everything in between… and then focus that on a limited set of products, you are bound to be more successful than a company trying to maintain backwards compatibility over 10+ years of stuff.

The iPhone / Touch App Store is such a success because the developers who want to write applications just need to know how to use the SDK and write objective C.  Apple created an amazing set of tools to develop against their device.  Yes.. I said device. It is a single OS with a consistent set of features/capabilities and a common screen size.  The only current variance comes in the phone vs. iPod models around Camera, GPS and Network.  Very easy to program around.

NOTE: Apple’s iPhone useated the Motorola Razr for the #1 spot it has held for years.

Take a look at the future of Android.  HTC and other manufacturers are going to take a crack at releasing many Android devices.  I don’t disagree that this is a good approach, but it is going to cause some fragmentation.  Do you think that Motorolas 350 people focused on Android are going to be thinking the exact same specs per device, and comparing that with HTC to ensure they line up as well?

The answer is NO. They will look at releasing the Slider model with tactical keyboard like the G1 from T-Mobile, they will release a feature phone that is smaller and less capable, they will release multiple touch screens with varying screen sizes.. some with GPS, some with .. well, hell, it is an extensible framework.. how about a barcode scanner and printer? 

To be successful selling applications you need market penetration.  Period.  You can’t sell that many mobile applications for $250 and be successful.  You have to sell a lot at a low price point, one that is tollerable for the features and benefit your users will get.  Apple iPhone developers do not worry about these things.  They just go.. build cool stuff and release.

Android WILL be successful in many ways, but not around helping developers and carriers succeed.  If Google gets a piece of every app sold then they are doing fine, however the individual developers will struggle to have the success some of the iPhone devlopers have seen.

Later we will talk about RIM and Windows Mobile, and then the music side of things.